Take your skills to the next level No matter where you're starting from, we've got what you need to power your potential. The US dollar is mixed today but it's outperformed everything over the past three months, except for the Canadian dollar. A fresh round of elections joins the crisis in Catalonia and the political instability in Italy. This chart is a big reason the loonie isn't doing better:. Trade ideas thread - European session 2 October
EUR/USD recent moves
If there's a way to make money, that's what business is going to do sooner or later. No change in rates but the central bank says the balance of risks to growth has a downward bias but is reduced because of the NAFTA agreement. Here's the full decision. The drop is the first real setback for crude bulls since mid-September. The market is worried about bonds but I think there's also real worry about China.
The selling really ramped up after Mike Pence's speech today, where he attacked China. It wasn't so much what he said but it's part of a deliberate propaganda campaign against China that kicked off a couple weeks ago. The biggest reason for that is people aren't forking over a big part of their paychecks on mortgages. The economy is healthy and GDP is higher than its ever been, yet housing is relatively inexpensive. It's a dream scenario. It's the home town and headquarters of Warren Buffett. Business Insider ranked it as the 28th best city to live in America.
He's at S 55th street, this is S 55th street:. The housing boom in the US led to something that's extremely valuable in the economic big picture -- cheap homes. The amount of homes built before the crisis was extraordinary and we're still nowhere near it. Ultimately, housing is one of the least-efficient places for money to be invested. There is almost no economic benefit besides one-off construction.
What's lost sometimes is the short-term versus the long-term. In the short-term, say 10 years, rising house prices give people more spending money because of the wealth effect and home equity loans.
However in the longer-term, other people need to buy those houses. Those people are essentially paying for the consumption of the generation before them. So you've simply brought spending forward and now you have the bill to pay.
In many countries that bill will have to be paid in the decades ahead; in the US it won't. While Thursday price action wasn't much about economic data, it was a day of consequence, as market participants were reminded of some of the traditional overhangs in the global economy, with a specific reference to the impact of rising US yields as the Fed moves further into its policy normalization.
Insee now sees GDP at 1. Macron is not making France great again. The US dollar is trying to mount a comeback with Europe headed home. It's off the lows against the euro, yen and pound but it was never on the lows against the commodity currencies to begin with. The pair is back above the day moving average. This chart is a big reason the loonie isn't doing better:.
Title text for next article. Join our Telegram group. Get the ForexLive Newsletter. Thu 4 Oct Referring to Pence's speech Thursday in the US: View Full Article with Comments. Asset 24 View More. Trade ideas thread - European session 2 October More from DoubleLine's Gundlach on year US Treasury signalling higher bond yields I posted the headline comment on rising US bond yields and stock market impact here earlier: Gundlach on USTs - yield moves indicate even higher to come Reuters have a recap and fuller report of Gundlach's comments up now.
Gundlach is a smart cookie: I posted the headline comment on rising US bond yields and stock market impact here earlier: Key takeaway is the government stimulus infrastructure spending stopping this sector falling harder for now. There is a video interview here on Bloomberg.
Australian Retail Sales data due today - preview What to watch for: Australian Retail Sales data due today — more preview https: What to watch for: ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Risk trades skid Forex news for North American trading on October 4, Forex news for North American trading on October 4, Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: Trade ideas thread - Friday 5 October Eamonn Sheridan.
TGIF and good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:. Australian Retail Sales data due today — preview The retail sales numbers for August from Australia are the data focus for the country this week. Retail sales were flat in July, a lacklustre result following a reasonably solid 1.
Australian Retail Sales data due today — preview https: The retail sales numbers for August from Australia are the data focus for the country this week. What's behind the recent US dollar rally Why has the dollar gained The US dollar is mixed today but it's outperformed everything over the past three months, except for the Canadian dollar.
Today UBS looks at what's driving the move and says it's a combination of simple factors: Why has the dollar gained The US dollar is mixed today but it's outperformed everything over the past three months, except for the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, Trump says he wants to see lower oil prices. US objective is to have no waivers for Iran oil purchasers Adam Button. What's the real consensus? Ultimately, the headline is going to matter less than wage growth. The consensus remains for 0. A miss on that will swamp any reaction to the headline.
Coming to a railway near you Adam Button. Mexican central bank leaves rates unchanged at 7. The central bank says it was not unanimous on the decision with one member voting for a hike. In June the Banxico hike rates to 7. It then turned sharply lower. The Italian issues are far from being resolved and low inflation also weighs. In the US, the Fed remains on course to raise rates four more times until the end of , and this supports the greenback.
The world is watching the Fed. Follow us on Sticher or iTunes. Here are some general data. The key countries are Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The US dollar is the reserve currency of the world. When markets are calm, this influx pushes the common currency higher. However, the eurozone has its share of economic and political issues and speculation takes its toll. While the worst may be behind us, it is always looming.
The euro-zone economies are growing at a robust pace in The ECB will halve bond-buys to 30 billion euros from January However, it left the door open to extending the QE program beyond September, and this hurt the euro. A weaker euro makes exports more attractive and pushes imported inflation higher.